VoteGeek AV Awesomeometer
The BBC may have a swingometer for election night, but I have an awesomeometer that doesn't just swing both ways, it swings all three ways! This project performs a general election simulation under AV rules with two runoff elections per constituency for 531 constituencies and it re-runs the election for 3916 different possible national vote share combinations, calculating the overall winners and hung parliament scenarios. The user can enter different values to represent how voters will use their AV second and third vote options. This allows analysis of the effect on the overall election result probability space due to changes in the way people use their alternative votes.
Ideas for taking this project forward
If the referendum results in a yes vote on AV I expect more polling data on second preferences will become available. The simulation makes a number of assumptions and doesn't really take into account voting patterns in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Estimated costs for taking this project forward
About the data used for this project
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